Casa Pia vs AVS – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Casa Pia's attack rating (0.87) and AVS's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AVS's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.70
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.26
0.83
AVS xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
5%
19.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.83 for AVS, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs AVS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.