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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arouca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia beat Arouca 3-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.42 xG and Arouca 0.93 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against Arouca attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 48% | Draw 27% | Arouca 25%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 40%, Arouca 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Arouca's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.15 PPG, Arouca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm. Arouca (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights