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Alverca cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alverca beat Casa Pia 0-2 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.76 xG and Alverca 1.65 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 1.09 / defence 1.36 against Alverca attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 40% | Draw 25% | Alverca 35%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Alverca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 54%, Alverca 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Alverca's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 0.82 PPG, Alverca 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alverca win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Alverca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights