Casa Pia 0-2 Alverca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Alverca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior plays host to Casa Pia versus Alverca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Casa Pia have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alverca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alverca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Alverca have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Casa Pia, 1.10 for Alverca — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Casa Pia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Alverca in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Alverca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 46% versus Alverca 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 54% | Alverca 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.76 xG and Alverca 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 1.087 / defence 1.365 | Alverca attack 0.922 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.308. Alverca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Casa Pia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Casa Pia games / 11 Alverca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 40% | Draw 25% | Alverca 35%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Alverca 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Casa Pia at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 70% | Alverca 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Alverca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 40% | Draw 25% | Alverca 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Casa Pia 1.76 / Alverca 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 1.087 / def 1.365 | Alverca attack 0.922 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Alverca xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Alverca kick off?
Casa Pia vs Alverca kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Alverca?
Casa Pia 0 - 2 Alverca.
Where is Casa Pia vs Alverca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Alverca part of?
Casa Pia vs Alverca is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Alverca?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 40% chance of winning, Alverca a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Alverca?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Casa Pia and Alverca will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Alverca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Alverca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Casa Pia and Alverca in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Alverca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Casa Pia's attack rating (1.09) and Alverca's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alverca's attack (0.92x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
40%
2.50
25%
4.02
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
3.41
1.65
Alverca xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
8%
12.95
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Alverca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Alverca expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.65 for Alverca, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Alverca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Casa Pia have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 2W 3D 6L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alverca's form line: 3W 2D 6L from 11 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Alverca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.00 for Alverca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Casa Pia have posted 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That actually lags their 0.82 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Alverca have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alverca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Casa Pia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Alverca are on 1.09 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Alverca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Alverca in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Alverca have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Alverca away?
Alverca's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.40 PPG; Alverca away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Casa Pia
0
Draws
2
Alverca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Alverca?
From 2 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 0, Alverca have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Alverca last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Alverca?
Alverca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Casa Pia, 80% for Alverca — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Casa Pia and 80% for Alverca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Alverca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Alverca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Casa Pia's games and 80% of Alverca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Casa Pia vs Alverca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Casa Pia's matches and 80% of Alverca's.
Do Casa Pia and Alverca tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Alverca in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alverca cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alverca beat Casa Pia 0-2 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.76 xG and Alverca 1.65 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 1.09 / defence 1.36 against Alverca attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 40% | Draw 25% | Alverca 35%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Alverca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 54%, Alverca 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alverca's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 0.82 PPG, Alverca 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alverca win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Alverca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.