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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Nacional defy the odds to beat Boavista 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat Boavista 0-1 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.02 xG and Nacional 1.01 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Boavista fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.71 / defence 1.35 against Nacional attack 0.62 / defence 1.10, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boavista 35% | Draw 31% | Nacional 34%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Nacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 46%, Nacional 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boavista's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nacional's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Nacional arrived the stronger side — 1.04 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Nacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights