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Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Boavista 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Boavista 1-2 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 0.75 xG and Guimaraes 1.20 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Guimaraes outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.65 / defence 1.21 against Guimaraes attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boavista 23% | Draw 31% | Guimaraes 46%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 50%, Guimaraes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boavista's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Guimaraes's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights