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GIL Vicente cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Boavista.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Boavista 1-3 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.03 xG and GIL Vicente 1.01 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. GIL Vicente outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.68 / defence 1.24 against GIL Vicente attack 0.72 / defence 1.11, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boavista 35% | Draw 30% | GIL Vicente 34%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 50%, GIL Vicente 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boavista's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boavista 0.78 PPG, GIL Vicente 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Boavista (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights