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Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Boavista 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Boavista 1-2 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 0.77 xG and FC Porto 1.76 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.64 / defence 1.47 against FC Porto attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boavista 16% | Draw 23% | FC Porto 61%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 50%, FC Porto 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boavista's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

FC Porto's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights