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Prediction vindicated as Casa Pia edge out Boavista 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia beat Boavista 2-3 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 0.75 xG and Casa Pia 1.51 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Boavista beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Casa Pia outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.61 / defence 1.23 against Casa Pia attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boavista 18% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 55%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 49%, Casa Pia 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boavista's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Casa Pia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boavista 0.86 PPG, Casa Pia 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Boavista (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights