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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tondela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Tondela 3-0 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.31 xG and Tondela 0.81 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tondela landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.30 / defence 0.93 against Tondela attack 0.72 / defence 1.30, drawn from 35/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 71% | Draw 17% | Tondela 11%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 0%, Tondela 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Tondela shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights