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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Benfica and Sporting CP share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 33, as Benfica and Sporting CP drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.82 xG and Sporting CP 1.77 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Benfica fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.79 / defence 0.88 against Sporting CP attack 1.66 / defence 0.78, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 40% | Draw 22% | Sporting CP 38%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 67%, Sporting CP 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Sporting CP's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Benfica 2.39 PPG, Sporting CP 2.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.61 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights