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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Benfica and SC Braga share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica and SC Braga finished level at 2-2 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.76 xG and SC Braga 1.04 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SC Braga outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.45 / defence 0.78 against SC Braga attack 1.18 / defence 0.82, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 54% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 22%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 68%, SC Braga 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Braga's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights