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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Mon 11 May 2026

20:15

Venue

Estádio da Luz

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Benfica Win

54%

Benfica

1.85

23%

Draw

4.26

22%

SC Braga

4.46

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.7%

Home win

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.76

Benfica xG

Total xG

2.80

1.04

SC Braga xG

54%
23%
22%
BenficaDrawSC Braga

1.85

54%

Home win

4.26

23%

Draw

4.46

22%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.86

46%

BTTS No

2.16

Clean Sheet

35%

Benfica

2.84

17%

SC Braga

5.80

Win to Nil

19%

Benfica

5.25

4%

SC Braga

25.85

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.1 6.3 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 10.7 11.1 5.8 2.0 0.5 0.1
2 9.4 9.8 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
3 5.5 5.7 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 2.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.757
λ Away (xG) 1.044
Total xG 2.801
League avg home goals 1.479
League avg away goals 1.137
Benfica attack strength 1.448
Benfica defence strength 0.779
SC Braga attack strength 1.179
SC Braga defence strength 0.821
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 66