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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Benfica and Rio Ave share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica and Rio Ave finished level at 1-1 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.22 xG and Rio Ave 1.20 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Benfica fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.27 / defence 0.88 against Rio Ave attack 1.12 / defence 1.35, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 60% | Draw 21% | Rio Ave 19%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 67%, Rio Ave 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Rio Ave's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Rio Ave (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights