Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Tue 23 Sep 2025

20:15

Venue

Estádio da Luz

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Benfica Win

60%

Benfica

1.67

21%

Draw

4.83

19%

Rio Ave

5.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.7%

Draw

2 – 0

8.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.22

Benfica xG

Total xG

3.42

1.20

Rio Ave xG

60%
21%
19%
BenficaDrawRio Ave

1.67

60%

Home win

4.83

21%

Draw

5.19

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

86%

Over 1.5

1.16

14%

Under 1.5

7.14

66%

Over 2.5

1.52

34%

Under 2.5

2.94

45%

Over 3.5

2.22

55%

Under 3.5

1.82

26%

Over 4.5

3.85

74%

Under 4.5

1.35

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

63%

BTTS Yes

1.59

37%

BTTS No

2.68

Clean Sheet

30%

Benfica

3.32

11%

Rio Ave

9.20

Win to Nil

18%

Benfica

5.53

2%

Rio Ave

47.73

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.3 3.9 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1
1 7.3 8.7 5.2 2.1 0.6 0.2
2 8.1 9.7 5.8 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 6.0 7.2 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.1
4 3.3 4.0 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.219
λ Away (xG) 1.199
Total xG 3.418
League avg home goals 1.297
League avg away goals 1.214
Benfica attack strength 1.271
Benfica defence strength 0.882
Rio Ave attack strength 1.120
Rio Ave defence strength 1.347
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 39 / 39