🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Nacional 3-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.26 xG and Nacional 0.64 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.65 / defence 0.79 against Nacional attack 0.73 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 74% | Draw 17% | Nacional 9%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 58%, Nacional 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nacional's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Nacional (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights