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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Benfica run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Moreirense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Moreirense 4-1 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.97 xG and Moreirense 0.80 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.38 / defence 0.75 against Moreirense attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 65% | Draw 21% | Moreirense 14%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 67%, Moreirense 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Moreirense's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.72 average — above their attacking norm. Moreirense (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights