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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Moreirense 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Moreirense 3-2 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.52 xG and Moreirense 0.72 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Moreirense outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.63 / defence 0.69 against Moreirense attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 76% | Draw 16% | Moreirense 8%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 61%, Moreirense 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Moreirense's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights