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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out GIL Vicente 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat GIL Vicente 2-1 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.01 xG and GIL Vicente 0.96 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.17 / defence 0.86 against GIL Vicente attack 0.92 / defence 0.68, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 35% | Draw 34% | GIL Vicente 32%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 65%, GIL Vicente 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights