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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Benfica and FC Porto share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica and FC Porto finished level at 2-2 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.15 xG and FC Porto 1.03 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Porto outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.30 / defence 0.76 against FC Porto attack 1.15 / defence 0.59, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 37% | Draw 32% | FC Porto 31%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 67%, FC Porto 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Porto's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Benfica 2.38 PPG, FC Porto 2.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Porto (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights