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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Farense 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Farense 3-2 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.30 xG and Farense 0.85 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Farense outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.63 / defence 0.77 against Farense attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 70% | Draw 18% | Farense 12%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 63%, Farense 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Farense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Farense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights