Benfica 3-2 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Farense.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benfica and Farense meet at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 2 April 2025 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benfica have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Farense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Farense's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in Benfica's favour (2.40 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Benfica 2W, Farense 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Farense half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 45% versus Farense 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 63% | Farense 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.30 xG and Farense 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.628 / defence 0.770 | Farense attack 0.954 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.151. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.628 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Benfica games / 60 Farense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 70% | Draw 18% | Farense 12%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Farense 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 40% | Farense 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Apr 2025, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 70% | Draw 18% | Farense 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 51% | xG Benfica 2.30 / Farense 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.628 / def 0.770 | Farense attack 0.954 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Benfica (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Farense xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Farense kick off?
Benfica vs Farense kicked off at 20:15 on Wednesday 2 April 2025 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Farense?
Benfica 3 - 2 Farense.
Where is Benfica vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Farense part of?
Benfica vs Farense is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 70% chance of winning, Farense a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benfica and Farense will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Farense?
Record (3 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 1 | Farense 0W.
What form are Benfica and Farense in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Farense (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benfica's attacking strength (1.63x league average) is weighed against Farense's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. Flip it around — Farense's attack (0.95x) against Benfica's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.64
12%
8.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.15
0.85
Farense xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.64
18%
Draw
8.20
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
10%
9.97
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
1%
81.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Benfica and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Benfica and 0.85 for Farense, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Farense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benfica's recent record stands at 45W 7D 8L from 60 games, a 2.37 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Farense, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 32L across 60 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Farense heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 27W 2D 1L from 30 games — 2.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Farense's away record stands at 5W 10D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benfica are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.05 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Farense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Farense in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 45W 7D 8L in their last 60 games (2.37 PPG), while Farense have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Farense away?
Benfica's home record (2.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.77 PPG; Farense away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Benfica or Farense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Farense in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Benfica have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Farense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Farense?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 3, Farense have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Farense last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2025, when Benfica 3-2 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Farense?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 40%, Farense 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Benfica and 50% for Farense. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Farense in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Farense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Benfica's recent matches and 60% of Farense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Farense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Benfica's matches and 50% of Farense's.
Do Benfica and Farense tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Farense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Farense 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Farense 3-2 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.30 xG and Farense 0.85 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Farense outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.63 / defence 0.77 against Farense attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 70% | Draw 18% | Farense 12%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 63%, Farense 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Farense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Farense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.