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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Famalicao 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Famalicao 1-0 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.55 xG and Famalicao 1.00 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.30 / defence 0.87 against Famalicao attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 50% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 24%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 67%, Famalicao 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Famalicao's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights