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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Benfica cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Estoril 3-1 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.09 xG and Estoril 1.01 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.21 / defence 0.79 against Estoril attack 1.01 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 62% | Draw 21% | Estoril 17%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 66%, Estoril 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Estoril's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights