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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 17

Kick-off

Sat 3 Jan 2026

18:00

Venue

Estádio da Luz

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Benfica Win

62%

Benfica

1.62

21%

Draw

4.68

17%

Estoril

5.90

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

9.8%

Home win

1 – 1

9.5%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.09

Benfica xG

Total xG

3.10

1.01

Estoril xG

62%
21%
17%
BenficaDrawEstoril

1.62

62%

Home win

4.68

21%

Draw

5.90

17%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

60%

Over 2.5

1.67

40%

Under 2.5

2.50

37%

Over 3.5

2.70

63%

Under 3.5

1.59

20%

Over 4.5

5.00

80%

Under 4.5

1.25

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.78

44%

BTTS No

2.28

Clean Sheet

36%

Benfica

2.75

12%

Estoril

8.07

Win to Nil

22%

Benfica

4.45

2%

Estoril

47.58

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.5 4.6 2.3 0.8 0.2
1 9.4 9.5 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1
2 9.8 9.9 5.0 1.7 0.4 0.1
3 6.8 6.9 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 3.6 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.2
5 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.088
λ Away (xG) 1.010
Total xG 3.098
League avg home goals 1.409
League avg away goals 1.261
Benfica attack strength 1.209
Benfica defence strength 0.789
Estoril attack strength 1.015
Estoril defence strength 1.226
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 50 / 50