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Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Estoril 3-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.63 xG and Estoril 0.72 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.68 / defence 0.72 against Estoril attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 78% | Draw 14% | Estoril 8%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 58%, Estoril 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Estoril's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights