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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 15

Kick-off

Mon 23 Dec 2024

18:45

Venue

Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Benfica Win

78%

Benfica

1.28

14%

Draw

7.13

8%

Estoril

12.77

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

12.1%

Home win

Most likely

3 – 0

10.6%

Home win

1 – 0

9.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.63

Benfica xG

Total xG

3.35

0.72

Estoril xG

78%
14%
BenficaDrawEstoril

1.28

78%

Home win

7.13

14%

Draw

12.77

8%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

65%

Over 2.5

1.54

35%

Under 2.5

2.86

43%

Over 3.5

2.33

57%

Under 3.5

1.75

25%

Over 4.5

4.00

75%

Under 4.5

1.33

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.10

52%

BTTS No

1.91

Clean Sheet

49%

Benfica

2.05

7%

Estoril

13.89

Win to Nil

38%

Benfica

2.63

1%

Estoril

177.36

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.5 2.5 0.9 0.2
1 9.2 6.6 2.4 0.6 0.1
2 12.1 8.7 3.1 0.8 0.1
3 10.6 7.7 2.8 0.7 0.1
4 7.0 5.0 1.8 0.4 0.1
5 3.7 2.7 1.0 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.631
λ Away (xG) 0.719
Total xG 3.350
League avg home goals 1.358
League avg away goals 1.109
Benfica attack strength 1.680
Benfica defence strength 0.720
Estoril attack strength 0.901
Estoril defence strength 1.153
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 48 / 48