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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Benfica and Casa Pia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 11, as Benfica and Casa Pia drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.30 xG and Casa Pia 0.84 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Casa Pia outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.40 / defence 0.76 against Casa Pia attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 69% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 11%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 66%, Casa Pia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Casa Pia's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights