Benfica 3-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Casa Pia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Casa Pia travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024, 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Benfica — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 10W 0D 0L at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Benfica are significantly better at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Casa Pia away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Benfica: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Casa Pia, with 1 draws across those contests.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Benfica winning.
The historical record gives Benfica a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Benfica in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 46% versus Casa Pia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 60% | Casa Pia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.17 xG and Casa Pia 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.362 / defence 0.796 | Casa Pia attack 1.127 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.421. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Benfica games / 35 Casa Pia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Benfica 58% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 22%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Casa Pia 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 40% | Casa Pia 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 58% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Benfica 2.17 / Casa Pia 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.362 / def 0.796 | Casa Pia attack 1.127 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Benfica (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Casa Pia xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Casa Pia kick off?
Benfica vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Benfica 3 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Benfica vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Casa Pia part of?
Benfica vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 58% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Benfica and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Casa Pia?
Record (4 meetings): Benfica 3W | Draws 1 | Casa Pia 0W.
What form are Benfica and Casa Pia in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benfica's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Casa Pia's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. The same calculation in reverse, Casa Pia's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
58%
1.73
20%
4.90
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.44
1.27
Casa Pia xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
3%
39.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Benfica and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Benfica and 1.27 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica come into this having played 35 games, going 25W 5D 5L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Casa Pia sit at 1.09 PPG from 35 outings (10W 8D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benfica's home form reads 15W 2D 0L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.76 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.29 PPG overall — Benfica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Casa Pia have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.09 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Casa Pia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 25W 5D 5L in their last 35 games (2.29 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Casa Pia away?
Benfica's home record (2.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.76 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Benfica or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and Casa Pia runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2026, when Benfica won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Casa Pia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Benfica
3
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Casa Pia?
From 9 meetings on record, Benfica have won 5, Casa Pia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Casa Pia?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 41%, Casa Pia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Benfica and 65% for Casa Pia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Benfica's recent matches and 53% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Benfica's matches and 65% of Casa Pia's.
Do Benfica and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Casa Pia 3-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.17 xG and Casa Pia 1.27 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Casa Pia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.36 / defence 0.80 against Casa Pia attack 1.13 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 58% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 22%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 60%, Casa Pia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Casa Pia's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.