🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat AVS 3-0 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.96 xG and AVS 0.85 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AVS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.25 / defence 0.79 against AVS attack 0.89 / defence 1.52, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 80% | Draw 12% | AVS 8%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 66%, AVS 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

AVS's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights