Benfica 3-0 AVS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face AVS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AVS make the trip to Estádio da Luz to face Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benfica have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Estádio da Luz this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AVS's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AVS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, AVS have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.90 in Benfica's favour (2.40 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Benfica lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 3–0 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
AVS half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 50% versus AVS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 66% | AVS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.96 xG and AVS 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.252 / defence 0.786 | AVS attack 0.890 / defence 1.524. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.212. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 2.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AVS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.524 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Benfica's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Benfica games / 56 AVS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 80% | Draw 12% | AVS 8%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.25 | Draw 8.33 | AVS 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (80%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 70% | AVS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs AVS | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio da Luz • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 80% | Draw 12% | AVS 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 54% | xG Benfica 2.96 / AVS 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.252 / def 0.786 | AVS attack 0.890 / def 1.524 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Benfica (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.85
AVS xG
54%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs AVS kick off?
Benfica vs AVS kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Estádio da Luz.
What was the final score in Benfica vs AVS?
Benfica 3 - 0 AVS.
Where is Benfica vs AVS being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Luz.
What competition is Benfica vs AVS part of?
Benfica vs AVS is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs AVS?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 80% chance of winning, AVS a 8% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs AVS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Benfica and AVS will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs AVS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and AVS?
Record (3 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 1 | AVS 0W.
What form are Benfica and AVS in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. AVS (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benfica's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against AVS's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.96. Flip it around — AVS's attack (0.89x) against Benfica's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
80%
1.25
12%
8.03
8%
12.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.80
0.85
AVS xG
1.25
80%
Home win
8.03
12%
Draw
12.99
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
5%
19.24
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Benfica and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Benfica and 0.85 for AVS, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs AVS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.36 PPG on a 40W 12D 4L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AVS's form line: 7W 17D 32L from 56 games, 0.68 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for AVS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AVS.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.44 PPG from 27 outings (20W 6D 1L).
On the road, AVS have gone 2W 9D 16L from 27 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benfica are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; AVS are on 0.80 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
AVS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and AVS in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 40W 12D 4L in their last 56 games (2.36 PPG), while AVS have gone 7W 17D 32L in their last 56 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or AVS away?
Benfica's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.44 PPG; AVS away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Benfica or AVS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, AVS in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 6-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AVS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Benfica
1
Draws
0
AVS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and AVS?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 3, AVS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and AVS last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Benfica 3-0 AVS.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and AVS?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 56%, AVS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Benfica and 56% for AVS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; AVS in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / AVS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play AVS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Benfica's recent matches and 52% of AVS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs AVS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Benfica's matches and 56% of AVS's.
Do Benfica and AVS tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, AVS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AVS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat AVS 3-0 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.96 xG and AVS 0.85 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AVS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.25 / defence 0.79 against AVS attack 0.89 / defence 1.52, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 80% | Draw 12% | AVS 8%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 66%, AVS 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
AVS's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.