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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Benfica run riot with a 6-0 hammering of AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat AVS 6-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 3.01 xG and AVS 0.80 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AVS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.68 / defence 0.95 against AVS attack 0.71 / defence 1.44, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 81% | Draw 12% | AVS 7%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 81%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 69%, AVS 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

AVS's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.12 average — above their attacking norm. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights