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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Benfica and Arouca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica and Arouca finished level at 2-2 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.49 xG and Arouca 1.09 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Arouca outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.74 / defence 0.87 against Arouca attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 68% | Draw 17% | Arouca 15%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 64%, Arouca 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Arouca's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights