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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Alverca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Alverca 2-1 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.71 xG and Alverca 0.67 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.31 / defence 0.73 against Alverca attack 0.74 / defence 1.34, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 80% | Draw 13% | Alverca 7%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 80%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 60%, Alverca 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Alverca's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights