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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AVS and Sporting CP share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 23, as AVS and Sporting CP drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.88 xG and Sporting CP 2.24 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AVS beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against Sporting CP attack 1.59 / defence 0.86, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 13% | Draw 20% | Sporting CP 68%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 38%, Sporting CP 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Sporting CP's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AVS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights