🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out AVS 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santa Clara beat AVS 0-1 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.08 xG and Santa Clara 1.18 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AVS fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.70 / defence 1.16 against Santa Clara attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 32% | Draw 30% | Santa Clara 37%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 52%, Santa Clara 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Santa Clara's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights