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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AVS and Nacional share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AVS and Nacional finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.91 xG and Nacional 1.27 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AVS beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against Nacional attack 0.79 / defence 0.82, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 27% | Draw 29% | Nacional 45%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 52%, Nacional 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Nacional's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AVS 0.69 PPG, Nacional 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AVS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights