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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Moreirense cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Moreirense beat AVS 0-2 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.24 xG and Moreirense 1.69 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AVS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.86 / defence 1.33 against Moreirense attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 28% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 47%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 53%, Moreirense 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Moreirense's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights