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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AVS and Guimaraes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 29, as AVS and Guimaraes drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.22 xG and Guimaraes 1.14 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.66 / defence 1.15 against Guimaraes attack 0.86 / defence 1.22, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 38% | Draw 28% | Guimaraes 34%, with AVS to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 52%, Guimaraes 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Guimaraes's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights