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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AVS edge out GIL Vicente 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AVS beat GIL Vicente 1-0 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.24 xG and GIL Vicente 1.24 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.71 / defence 1.23 against GIL Vicente attack 0.86 / defence 1.23, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 36% | Draw 29% | GIL Vicente 35%, with AVS to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 40%, GIL Vicente 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AVS 1.05 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AVS win broke the near-deadlock. AVS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights