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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AVS and Estrela share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AVS and Estrela finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.16 xG and Estrela 0.89 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.72 / defence 1.21 against Estrela attack 0.67 / defence 1.19, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 42% | Draw 30% | Estrela 28%, with AVS to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 41%, Estrela 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Estrela's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AVS 1.12 PPG, Estrela 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estrela (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights