AVS 3-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Estoril (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AVS face Estoril.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AVS host Estoril at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, AVS have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for AVS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AVS at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Estoril — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Estoril have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Estoril — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, AVS have won 0, Estoril 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Estoril winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AVS in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Estoril in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AVS 47% versus Estoril 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AVS 53% | Estoril 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AVS 1.08 xG and Estoril 2.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AVS attack 0.621 / defence 1.437 | Estoril attack 1.498 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.242. AVS's attack strength of 0.621 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estoril have an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — the away xG of 2.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 AVS games / 55 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AVS 13% | Draw 16% | Estoril 71%. Fair-value odds: AVS 7.69 | Draw 6.25 | Estoril 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.08 / 2.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: AVS 50% | Estoril 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AVS vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AVS 13% | Draw 16% | Estoril 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 61% | xG AVS 1.08 / Estoril 2.67 • Poisson strength factors: AVS attack 0.621 / def 1.437 | Estoril attack 1.498 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Estoril (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
AVS xG
Expected Goals
2.67
Estoril xG
61%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AVS vs Estoril kick off?
AVS vs Estoril kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What was the final score in AVS vs Estoril?
AVS 3 - 0 Estoril.
Where is AVS vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What competition is AVS vs Estoril part of?
AVS vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win AVS vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives AVS a 13% chance of winning, Estoril a 71% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in AVS vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both AVS and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will AVS vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and Estoril?
Record (3 meetings): AVS 0W | Draws 1 | Estoril 2W.
What form are AVS and Estoril in?
AVS (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Estoril (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AVS's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Estoril's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus AVS's defence, projects 2.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (8.4%), 1-3 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
13%
7.75
16%
6.31
71%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
AVS xG
Total xG
3.75
2.67
Estoril xG
7.75
13%
Home win
6.31
16%
Draw
1.40
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
7%
14.51
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
1%
112.41
24%
4.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AVS vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are AVS and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for AVS and 2.67 for Estoril, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for AVS vs Estoril?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AVS come into this having played 55 games, going 6W 17D 32L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for AVS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 1.38 PPG from 55 outings (20W 16D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of AVS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AVS's home form reads 3W 8D 16L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (8W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AVS are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.65 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AVS
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AVS and Estoril in coming into this match?
AVS have gone 6W 17D 32L in their last 55 games (0.64 PPG), while Estoril have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AVS at home or Estoril away?
Estoril's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AVS at home: 0.63 PPG; Estoril away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2025, when Estoril won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AVS's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AVS
1
Draws
2
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and Estoril?
From 4 meetings on record, AVS have won 1, Estoril have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AVS and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when AVS 3-0 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between AVS and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AVS 44%, Estoril 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for AVS and 78% for Estoril. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AVS have failed to score in 44% of games; Estoril in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AVS home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AVS play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of AVS's recent matches and 56% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AVS vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of AVS's matches and 78% of Estoril's.
Do AVS and Estoril tend to score early?
AVS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Estoril in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AVS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AVS beat Estoril 3-0 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.08 xG and Estoril 2.67 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AVS beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estoril landed 2.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.62 / defence 1.44 against Estoril attack 1.50 / defence 1.12, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AVS 13% | Draw 16% | Estoril 71%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a AVS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 53%, Estoril 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AVS's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Estoril's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with AVS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AVS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.