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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Estoril run riot with a 0-3 hammering of AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat AVS 0-3 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.27 xG and Estoril 1.54 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. AVS fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Estoril outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.76 / defence 1.13 against Estoril attack 1.18 / defence 1.23, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 31% | Draw 25% | Estoril 44%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 38%, Estoril 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estoril's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AVS 1.00 PPG, Estoril 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights