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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia beat AVS 0-2 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.21 xG and Casa Pia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AVS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Casa Pia attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it AVS 35% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 36%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 46%, Casa Pia 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Casa Pia's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Casa Pia arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights