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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AVS and Casa Pia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AVS and Casa Pia finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.03 xG and Casa Pia 1.36 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.69 / defence 1.23 against Casa Pia attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 28% | Draw 27% | Casa Pia 44%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 42%, Casa Pia 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Casa Pia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Casa Pia arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights