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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat AVS 0-3 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.79 xG and Benfica 1.59 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.70 / defence 1.12 against Benfica attack 1.13 / defence 0.85, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 19% | Draw 25% | Benfica 56%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 47%, Benfica 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Benfica's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 0.74. Form held, and they took the win. AVS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights