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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Arouca edge out AVS 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat AVS 0-1 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.34 xG and Arouca 1.62 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AVS fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Arouca attack 1.19 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 31% | Draw 26% | Arouca 43%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 38%, Arouca 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Arouca's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AVS 1.12 PPG, Arouca 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights