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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alverca cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alverca beat AVS 1-3 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.10 xG and Alverca 1.42 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Alverca outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.65 / defence 1.25 against Alverca attack 0.94 / defence 1.31, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 29% | Draw 27% | Alverca 44%, with Alverca to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 71%, Alverca 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Alverca's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Alverca arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.14. That form edge translated into the three points. AVS (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alverca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights