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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sat 4 Oct 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Alverca Win

29%

AVS

3.46

27%

Draw

3.66

44%

Alverca

2.28

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.6%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

11.4%

Away win

1 – 0

8.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.10

AVS xG

Total xG

2.52

1.42

Alverca xG

29%
27%
44%
AVSDrawAlverca

3.46

29%

Home win

3.66

27%

Draw

2.28

44%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.96

49%

BTTS No

2.05

Clean Sheet

24%

AVS

4.13

33%

Alverca

3.02

Win to Nil

7%

AVS

14.30

14%

Alverca

6.90

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.0 11.4 8.1 3.8 1.4 0.4
1 8.9 12.6 8.9 4.2 1.5 0.4
2 4.9 6.9 4.9 2.3 0.8 0.2
3 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.105
λ Away (xG) 1.419
Total xG 2.524
League avg home goals 1.304
League avg away goals 1.206
AVS attack strength 0.646
AVS defence strength 1.254
Alverca attack strength 0.938
Alverca defence strength 1.310
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 7