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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arouca cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Tondela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Tondela 3-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.92 xG and Tondela 1.15 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.10 / defence 1.20 against Tondela attack 0.84 / defence 1.20, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 55% | Draw 22% | Tondela 23%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 67%, Tondela 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Tondela's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.18 PPG, Tondela 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Tondela (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights